What is the worst that can happen? A fair question to ask when a rookie quarterback comes into playNFLin his rookie season, especially if most believe he's playing too early.
ButNFLCoaches are people just like all of us, and today's society doesn't like to wait for their young quarterbacks to play a regular-season game. And as we have seen with the likes ofjustina herbertIjoe burrow, sometimes newbies can experience the best in year 1.
In this article, I've taken a deep dive and laid out in great detail the best and worst case scenarios for rookie quarterbacks in 2023.like me last yearDoKenny'ego Picketta,Desmonda Ridderaand company. As you'll see below, the numbers are based on these quarterbacks actually having a chance to play significant plays in their early seasons, which obviously isn't a guarantee for all servers.
But for argument's sake, we'll assume that all quarterbacks included have a fair chance. And the top 5 selectionsyoung bryce,CJ StroudIAnthony'ego Richardsonaought. From there, I allowed myself the freedom to determine how much above or below average I think each quarterback could land in the best and worst case scenarios.
First, I found the expectation parameters for these freshmen. For reference, I used seasons of 19 quarterbacks who threw at least 200 passes as rookies over the past five seasons. Here's a look:
| Termination | yards to try | DT % | EN T% | QB rating | if | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
High Rating (Justin Herbert, 2020) | 66,6% | 7.3 | 5.2 | 1.7 | 98,3 | 5.10 |
Low rating (jose rosen, 2018) | 55,2% | 5.8 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 66,7 | 10.27 |
group average | 61,5% | 6.74 | 3,73 | 2.71 | 82,5 | 7.39 |
In theory, using a larger sample size would mean doing this study per book. However,NFLThe research differs from most other research in that a larger sample size can actually backfire because of how quickly the game changes for everyone on the court, especially quarterbacks. Including passers-by even earlier in, say, 2018 seems too old-fashioned to predict.
For the context of averages, a 61.5% completion rate was nearly identical to whatMariota brandwas last year The figure of 6.74 yards per attempt was comparabledak prescottIDerek Carrin 2022, the average TD% of 3.8 was correct between Justin Herbert andCarson Wentzaa season ago The catch rate of 2.71% was among thematt ryanIMatthew Stafford. The collective's rating of 82.5 would be a flop between Wentz and Ryan, and the 7.39% layoff rate was on par withmac jonesIlamar jacksonrates from 2022
Now that you have realistic expectations based on stats, let's look at the best and worst case scenarios for 2023 rookies.
young bryce
young bryce
CAR • QB • #9
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Best screenplay:67% completion, 7.3 yards on try, 3,650 passing yards, 25 TD passes, 9 INT, 30 sacks, 97.5 rating
Worst of cases:60% completion, 6.1 yards on try, 2,440 passing yards, 10 TD passes, 12 INT, 32 sacks, 74.1 rating
The best and worst case scenarios here are a bit abnormal. They are not based on the same number of pass attempts. And, of course, I'm not one to predict every type of injury with certainty, to any player, in any position, but given Young's size and tendency to form under pressure, the worst case scenario would be an injury that it would waste some time.
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Con Frank Reich, Jim Caldwell yJosha McCownaofpanthersPersonally, it's safe to assume the trio will be able to provide Young with plenty of easy completions, the talk of Young's show, and former Heisman winners have the chops to process and anticipate passes quickly, so a new rate rating should be set. of complete passes high. as no surprise to anyone.
CJ Stroud
CJ Stroud
HOU • QB • #7
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Best screenplay:64% completion, 7.0 yards on try, 3,325 passing yards, 21 TD passes, 12 INT, 33 sacks, 88.7 rating
worst of cases script:57% completion, 6.3 yards on attempt, 2,993 passing yards, 15 TD passes, 17 INT, 48 sacks, 71.5 rating
Given that Stroud landed with a defensive-minded head coach and has an offensive coordinator from the coaching tree Kyle Shanahan, there's a good chance Houston wants to put an emphasis on the running game, relatively speaking, for his first year at quarterback. . Thus, Stroud's numbers were based on a fairly modest 475 tries in 17 games.
Houston will be more competent in 2023 than the club has been in the past two rather dismal seasons. The litany of free agents will be the key to this update. But the target audience is still not very threatening andbrandin kitchenis now inkowboje. All of this points to the worst case scenario for Stroud.
Given his two years of high-profile performances at Ohio State, there's certainly a good chance Stroud will display plenty of veteran qualities as a pure pocket passer, while occasionally showing off when necessary. The running game will be crucial for offensive coordinator Bobby Słowik; Let's not forget that Shanahan's scheme has a long history of getting incredible performance out of its quarterback.
Anthony'ego Richardsona
Anthony'ego Richardsona
IND • QB
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Best screenplay:61% completion, 7.0 yards on try, 3,150 passes, 23 TD passes, 11 INT, 25 sacks, 89 marks
Worst of cases:55% complete, 6.4 yards to try. 2280 passes, 14 TD passes, 14 INT, 34 sacks, 67.2 rating
I know what you're thinking: Given Richardson's widely accepted sternness, his worst-case scenario must be worse than this, right? My Accountant: Remember who his main trainer is. This is the same head coach who was part of Justin Herbert's record-breaking rookie season in 2020 and played an integral role in the sensational, formulaic environment aroundjalen hurtsin 2021 and, of course, his breakthrough in 2022.
I used the first two years of Hurts with theEagles-- one of them was on Shane Steichen -- as a general guideline, and of course that was factored into how well I think Richardson can play and how effective he can really be as a newcomer to it.źrebakilist. Essentially "all is well" for the Colts, Richardson often takes what the defense gives him, under Steichen's watchful eye he makes some glaring misses but maintains a relatively high average yards per attempt for a rookie with long shots occasional. - ball connection. Also, don't forget: Much of what Richardson will do in his first NFL season will be on the court with his otherworldly size and athleticism.
Willa Levisa
Willa Levisa
TEN • QB • #8
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Best screenplay:63% completion, 6.6 yards attempting, 2,310 passing yards, 16 TD passes, 7 INT, 21 sacks, 89.1 rating
Worst of cases:56% completion, 6.2 trying yards, 1,800 passing yards, 9 TD passes, 12 INT, 27 sacks, 67.9 rating
At my best, I made 325 attempts for Levis, almost as many passes.Ryana Tannehillahe pitched last season in 12 contests. I think it's pretty unlikely Levis will drop Tannehill immediately in 2023, and even if he plays before mid-October, chances are he'llTytaniit will be extraordinaryDerricka Henry'ego, Haason HaskinsTyjae Spearsstrong offensive.
Levis' worst-case scenario is low overall, mainly due to perhaps the worst receiving group in football for the Titans, with the offensive line still needing improvement, even with the addition of a first-round pick.piotr skoronski. Not being able to catch passes dynamically, and yes, Chig Okonkwo, who shone as a rookie, is the beginning of a recipe for disaster for the young quarterback. I used a worst-case scenario sample of 300 for Levis, essentially suggesting a shorter playing time than a 12-game sample for a best-case scenario.