Everyone wants to have a "guest" on their fantastic football team. Justin Jefferson? He is a great choice. Chasing Ja'Marr? Save me. AJ Brown? This man is basically the starting point of fantasy football. However, if he doesn't catch one of these guys in his starting draft, he'll have a very hard time trading for one of them. But don't lose hope! There are a handful of players you can buy at a discount just because they aren't the best receivers on your team.
When you think of the #1 receiver, you probably think of those few guys I just mentioned. However, no one can deny the value of players like Tee Higgins and DeVonta Smith in a dynasty of fantasy football leagues. Today I'm going to put the perspective of the fantasy football dynasty on Higgins vs. Smith. If he's on the clock and has both wide receivers, who should he pick? Read on to find out.
The current start ADP: 34,5
Stat Line 2022: 16 games played, 109 goals, 74 receptions for 1,029 yards and 7 touchdowns
Business Value: Top 5 Rookies
I've always been better at Tee Higgins than consensus, so I'll do my best to keep this analysis balanced. That being said, there are TONS of reasons I've historically been high on Tee Higgins. With an ADP of 34.5, Higgins is half a round ahead of Devonta Smith and nearly three rounds ahead of Jordan Addison. Is this high ADP justified? I'll let you evaluate it.
Higgins has been as good as you want him to be as a tackler since he entered the league in 2020. As a rookie, he started 14 games and saw 108 goals, which he was able to convert for 908 yards and 6 touchdowns. He did more of the same in 2021, grabbing 74 balls for 1,091 yards and 6 more touchdowns. During his first three seasons, he averaged over 1,000 yards per season with 6 touchdowns at halftime.
At a whopping 6'4 and 215 pounds, Higgins is the epitome of "alpha WR" size. While he may not be a true alpha since he shares the field with Chase, Higgins does everything he expects of his big receiver. He intimidates defensive backs, he's always reliable for big plays, and he always seems to have an advantage on those 50/50 balls. Also, these types of big plays translate very well into fantasy football production.
Anything else that bodes well for your fantasy output? A great contract. Higgins is rumored to get an extension from Cincinnati before the 2023 season, and the annual number could be absolutely huge. Last I saw he was expecting a payment of $22 to $25 million a year. There are only 9 other catchers in the entire league making $22 million (or more) a year, and this list of players is pretty good.
Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, DeAndre Hopkins, Cooper Kupp, AJ Brown, Stefon Diggs, DK Metcalf, Deebo Samuel,ITerry'ego McLaurinathey are the only other receivers on this list. Also, the possibility of Higgins having the same conversation with these guys indicates that a big production is on the horizon.
Higgins' biggest downfall was his health. While he was technically active for 16 games in 2022, he took meaningful photos in just 14 of them. Plus, he only played 14 games in 2021 and started the exact same thing in 2020. Injuries don't recur, though, so I wouldn't worry about future flare-ups. However, his aggressive playstyle makes him slightly more prone to injury.
From a concussion to a sprained ankle to even a hamstring repair, Higgins has yet to put together a full season. Could 2023 be any different? Maybe, but I'd bet he won't be available in all 17 games to a lesser extent. However, producing it when healthy is worth the price you'll have to pay for it. And with the odds of him having a fully healthy season, he could be a top five scorer in fantasy.
Higgins is extremely efficient. In 2022, he averaged 13.9 receiving yards, while Chase averaged 12. In each of his first three NFL seasons, he consistently averaged 13.6 yards or more. WITHTylera Boydaaging,Haydena Hurstaleave the team andjoe mixonWith the fast falling trend in this attack, I would imagine there will be more targets available to both Higgins and Chase in 2023. More targets equals more opportunities, and more opportunities equals more fantasy points. Even if we could see Higgins' goal total increase to 125, he's in for a solid season.
Using his statistical averages from his first 46 NFL games, 125 goals can translate to stats of 83 receptions, 1,158 yards and 7 touchdowns. In standard PPR leagues, this would be enough for 240.8 points, which would translate to the end of WR12 in 2022. Overall, not bad at all. And honestly, I think those numbers are a conservative guess at what his stats might be with a fully healthy 2023 season.
According to ADP, Higgins is preparing as a WR11, which honestly seems to make sense. When he's healthy, his floor is like a top-15 wide receiver, and there's room for him on every dynasty roster. While Higgins may not have the same innovative ceiling as Chase, he has had quite a few big games under his belt and will have many more to come. Plus, Higgins may have the highest ceiling between him and Smith. However, with a higher ceiling he comes a bit more risk.
Renewing Joe Burrow's contract for the foreseeable future would be a great move for his dynasty. I think these two will continue to develop their chemistry and it's only a matter of time before Higgins notches his first double-digit touchdown season. Like I said, he may not be as exciting in your lineup as Chase, but skill-wise, he's MUCH closer to Chase than people realize.
The current start ADP: 40,5
Stat Line 2022: 17 games played, 136 goals, 95 receptions for 1,196 yards and 7 touchdowns
Business Value: Top 5 Rookies
I think my favorite thing about Smith is all the nicknames he's been given. Many of us know him as "Slender Reaper", but apparently some people call him "Skinny Batman" and that annoys me.
Nicknames aside, Smith is an incredible player and every Dynasty team should be thrilled to have him on their team. His ADP suggests he is the 14th wide receiver off the board. Honestly, that can be quite the steal. Smith is approaching the fantasy finals from the top 9 at this position, so the fact that his cost does not fully reflect his talents is music to the ears of a Dynasty player.
Smith was missed by many after his rookie year as he "only" amassed 916 yards and 5 touchdowns on 104 targets. I think the unwarranted blackout had less to do with his production and more to do with Chase's production. Anyone who plays fantasy couldn't help but compare the two, and Smith just couldn't keep up with the Chase train hype. As a result, Smith suddenly became a big, low-risk buy in last year's offseason.
Even more surprising is that this "buy low" tag was able to accompany him during this offseason. Think about it, he's one of the few best catchers in Dynasty leagues who is 25 or younger who was actually taken AFTER the end of last season. You do not believe me? Look at this list:
Justin Jefferson – Completed WR1, drafted as WR1.
Ceedee Lamb – WR5 trim, drafted as WR3.
AJ Brown: Finished WR6, being prepared as WR4.
Calle Amón-Ra Marrón: WR7 finish, written as WR7.
Jaylen Waddle – Finished WR8, drafted as WR6.
I could go on, but I think you get the point. It's rare for a player this young to out-ADP him by a decent margin and then be able to buy him at a discount.
Another reason people may have faded it last year was becausejalen hurts. Hurts was not believed by many to be capable of wielding as many guns as Brown, and even Smithdallas good. plus manyhe concluded that Smith could not be more than a low-budget WR2 for most fantasy weeks. But anyone who doubted Hurts was wrong. Very badly. As a result, a lot of people were wrong about Smith after he missed nearly 1,200 yards as a sophomore wide receiver.
If that's not enough to get you on the Smitty Hype Train, let's take a look at his art. Like Addison and Higgins, he shares the field with the dominant wide-angle receiver. He will almost never face a CB1 opponent, which should make it a bit easier for him to open up in the secondary. Smith is also a nightmare to beat outdoors and is what I would consider a YAC monster.
This Philadelphia offense is one of the most creative in the entire league. I understand they're going into 2023 with a new offensive coordinator, but I can't imagine offensive talent taking a step back. It's electrifying and I would love to have one of these receivers in my dynasty. However, at a cost, I may even prefer Smith to Brown.
While there are far more good things to say about Smith than bad, I'd be remiss if I didn't mention his flaws. We've probably already seen the roof of it.
There are few scenarios where Smith improves his stats starting in 2022. Think about it, we all love Hurts. However, is it realistic to expect him to have 3,700+ yards in 2023? I mean, it's definitely possible, but he's a dual-threat quarterback, and real dual-threat guys like this rarely pass for more than 4,000 yards. Furthermore, I would also expect Brown to continue to command his 29% share target. Personally, I would expect Smith to go down. Reason? Goedert.
Goedert only played in 12 games last season, but managed an average goal share of 19%. Given how well he played and how good the Eagles were when Goedert was on the field, I imagine his target percentage will go up at least a bit. I think he'll take some Red Zone looks away from Brown, but I think he'll take even more goals from Smith in 20. It's also worth mentioning that the Eagles broughtD'André Swift, which also seems to be an obvious factor in the passing game.
I find it hard to believe that Smith will repeat with 136 goals if the entire offense holds up in 2023. It's a great game waiting to happen, but if the goals split at all in this attack to make way for their new and returning players. Ultimately, Smith's goals may come at a cost.
All things considered, I think Smith will do very well and continue to produce at an elite level. I'm not sure I'd be comfortable saying he'd repeat as WR9, but I also wouldn't be comfortable saying he wouldn't beat his ADP.
In WR14, you pick it up on your floor, which is pretty awesome considering you have to pick up most of the elite resources at their max price. You'll probably never make it to the top 5 of your audience and you'll probably end up outside the top 10 more often. However, it is a very safe bet to finish in the top 15 consistently. Between him and Higgins, I'd definitely say he's got the most secure floor.
The current start ADP: 67,5
2022 Stat Line (College): 11 games played, 59 receptions for 875 yards and 8 touchdowns
Commercial Value: Rookie Selection 1.07 or First Round Selection in early/mid 2024
Just for fun, I'll throw a slightly lower ADP rookie into the mix.
Jordan Addison enters Minnesota in 2023 as a clear WR2 behind Justin Jefferson. While I'm personally a huge fan of Addison, we all know there's no scenario (other than injury) that he would ever be Viking's WR1. Also, because of the target's participation limits on sharing the field with a fantasy star kid, it also means that he'll likely never be in a conversation with the top five.dynastywide receivers at every stage of his career. But would you believe me if I said that's not really a bad thing for his upcoming fantasy production?
Addison is 6 feet tall but weighs only 175 pounds. I don't bettoo muchmargin to receiver size if he's as talented as Addison, but I couldn't call him a stone-faced "alpha WR" either. That said, there was always the possibility of being called up to the team's WR2, and honestly, there weren't many better situations for him than the one he had with the Vikings.
kirk cousinsremains the Vikings' starter for the 2023 season, and given that they have yet to invest serious project capital elsewhere, it seems likely that the Cousins will be there for the entire 2024 season as well (and potentially even longer). ). Believe it or not, this is fantastic news for any attacking player wearing a purple and yellow jersey. Cousins had the fifth-most passing points of any quarterback in the NFL in 2022, and was also in the top 10 in that category in 2021.
Being the top pass attempt contributor also means an absolute ton of passes. Over the past two seasons, Cousins has thrown for over 8,700 total yards and 62 touchdowns, placing him firmly in the top six in passing yards and touchdowns over the past two seasons. In general, he may not earn the respect of NFL fans. However, Cousins is a statistical goldmine for fantasy football players.
Justin Jefferson represents more than 3,400 yards, but that means more than 60% of Cousins' production is available to other players. we sawAdama Thielenasucceed unlike Jefferson, we have seenTJ Hockensonsucceed in this crime. Hell, we've even seen some solid games withkj osborn! While Hockenson and Osborn are still available, neither pose a legitimate threat to Addison's prospects for 2023 (and beyond).
Addison has the perfect skill set for what the Vikings need. She needed some consistency unlike Jefferson and she would definitely say they found it. Addison arguably has the most confident set of hands in the rookie class of 2023, which should bode well for her immediate chances. She is also a buttery smooth runner and was able to get a college level separation with ease. Of course, there will be a period of adjustment.NFL, but his skill set usually transfers very well to the professional level.
It's also worth noting that Addison will do this.hardly everhave CB1 opposed against him. Teams are forced to do everything they can to defend Jefferson, which means Addison will have some perfect matchups. With Cousinsaveraging nearly 38 passes per game, we can go ahead and bring Addison in for a solid 6 to 8 goals per game off target. He will be pushed to possibly the best position of any rookie and could find himself in contention for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
I know most of you are too busy with advertising.Jaxon Smith-Njigbabut don't forget that Addison's name came up in several conversations with the WR1 rookie over the past year. There's a lot to like about his game and I think at his current price in round 6 in startups, he's great. Of the three receivers featured in this article, he definitely has the highest risk factor (since he's an unproven rookie), but he may also have the most intriguing range of results.
I'm going to be easy on myself and say them all.
All three have what it takes to be a solid addition to the Dynasty team. Devonta Smith already has a spot in the top 10, Higgins has the skill and stats to help him break into the top 10, and Addison also fits the mold these guys have set for Dynasty relevance.
If you're feeling adventurous, I'd go for Higgins. He has the qualities of a true alpha wide receiver and should only continue to grow in the NFL. God forbid something happens to Chase, but if it did, Higgins would immediately be in the top five of all fantastic football. He has the skill set to easily finish as a WR1 at a moment's notice and can be a touchdown machine if health goes his way.
If you're a little more risk averse, take the safe option at Smith. Like I said, Smith has already finished in the top 10, and while it seems likely we've already seen his top, we know his bottom is very safe. Being able to draft him as the 14th wide receiver off the board should be enough to make any Dynasty manager VERY happy.
If you don't want to question your previous choice and you don't have a concrete answer, go for the cheapest of all the options in Jordan Addison. He will be an exciting player to watch for many seasons and an incredibly solid WR2 for many years to come for his dynasty.
I will never make decisions for you, but I will certainly do my best to give you the tools you need to make your own decisions. I believe that these three wide receivers offer their own unique strengths in fantasy football and it is up to you to decide which one you are most comfortable with!
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